Think this is over? Not by a long shot.

It should be obvious to most now that the "green shoots"... and yes... that phrase is as exciting to me as... oh... painting a barn white... um... the "green shoots" are just a figment of the stimulus-loving media... CNBC .

Now I could go on and on quoting this "secondary indicator" and that "turning point" and this "still negative but not AS negative" garbage... or I could cut to the chase. Show of hands anyone??

I thought so. So let's sift through all the B.S. with one simple article...

United Western Bancorp, Inc. Reports Sale of Mortgaged-Backed Securities

Something this simple escapes the "brilliant" minds in Washington and Central Bankers' offices world-wide. I encourage you to read it, but basically it's a standard "this bank sold these securities for this amount" but what is astounding and absolutely frightening is the devil in the details:

"United Western Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ: UWBK - News) (the “Company”), a Denver-based holding company whose principal subsidiary, United Western Bank® (the “Bank”), is a community bank focused on expansion across Colorado’s Front Range market and selected mountain communities, today announced that the Bank sold mortgage-backed securities with an unpaid principal balance of $47.3 million of lower tranche mortgage backed securities secured primarily by “option-adjustable-rate” mortgage loans (the “Option ARM Securities”) to an unaffiliated third party. Total consideration received for the Option ARM Securities was $378,000. "

Hmmm... so let's see... This bank found an interested third party to buy $47,300,000 worth of Option ARM mortgages for.... drum roll please... $378,000. Yep... that's .08% of their face value.

What??? Reeeeallly??? Now... a quick recap of Chapter 1 on "How to Value a Pile of Crap"...

If you have a big pile of crap on your front lawn and you put a sign out that says:

CRAP FOR SALE - $100 or best offer

and after about 2 years someone offers you ONE PENNY for it.... what was it worth?

Now... let's think about this... this small unknown bank was able to find a buyer that would take their 47 MILLION dollars worth of crap for oh... a 99% haircut.

What was their crap really worth?

Now let's think about Bank of America, who has HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS of this same CRAP (Option ARM Mortgages) on their books thanks to the Countrywide purchase...


Wells Fargo, who originated HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS of this SAME CRAP on their own before swallowing Wachovia, which origniated HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS of this SAME CRAP on THEIR own before SWALLOWING Golden West/World Savings, which proudly boasted for years that they ORIGINATED THE IDEA OF THIS CRAP as well as ORIGINATING HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS of this SAME CRAP


IndyMac Bank, which LOVED THIS CRAP and then failed... and Washington Mutual, which LOVED THIS CRAP and then failed...


well... HOLY CRAP.

I'd say the market just told us that Wells, BofA and anyone else with this CRAP on their books is pretty likely to take a 99% haircut.

Let's not forget that Option Arm Mortgage defaults are also rising at an exponential rate as foreclosures filed in the latest quarters set... oh... another record. It's getting better out their, isn't it?

And what do they say this crap is worth? Have you seen the earnings reports they cooked up? Hmmmm.... who's lying now????